Predicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World

Selective water release from the deeper pools of reservoirs alters temperature downstream rivers. Thermal destabilization rivers can be detrimental to riverine ecosystem by disturbing growth stages various aquatic species. To predict this impact planned hydropower dams worldwide, we present a framework called “FUture Temperatures Using River hISTory (FUTURIST).” The used historical records in-situ river temperatures for existing in U.S. and remote sensing observations those other regions train an artificial neural network (ANN) model that predicts change between upstream Validation FUTURIST-modeled impacts worldwide showed promising results with root mean squared error 2.5°C (0.9°C) categorical accuracy 63% (88%) during summer (winter) season. trained ANN afforded prediction likely thermal 216 dams. Results suggest season, 73% future will potentially cool up 6.6°C. Winter season operations were predicted consistently warm 2°C. Reservoirs experience strong stratification have most potential pre-dam regimes. For copious or are yet mapped their impacts, FUTURIST provides efficient path forward carry out global assessment design sustainable expansion plans so upcoming operated more eco-sensitive manner than ones.